A data set of mean temperature, precipitation and other climate parameters for 740 stations across China′s Mainland was used to analyze climate change in mainland China. The data set has been processed more carefully, and the main in homogeneities existing in the monthly mean temperature data have been checked and corrected. The widely accepted procedures for creating area-averaged climatic time series and for calculating linear trend have been used. Analyses have been made for annual and monthly mean temperature, precipitation, pan evaporation, sunshine duration, wind speed, and the maximum depth of snow cover.The analyses show that annual mean surface air temperature in China′s Mainland as a whole rose by about 1.1 ℃ for the last 50 years, with a warming rate of about 0.22 ℃/10 a. The warming in the later half 20th century is more rapid than the average values of the world and the Northern Hemisphere. The most evident warming occurred in winter and spring as expected. Northeast China, North China and Northwest China experienced more significant warming in terms of annual mean temperature, while a cooling trend reported in earlier studies is still continuing. Summer mean temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River also decreased in the last 50 years.No significant long term change in the country averaged annual precipitation was seen for both the past 50 years. However, an obvious tendency of drying in the Yellow River Basin and the North China Plain in terms of precipitation has been found, and the largest drop in precipitation occurred in Shandong Province. Meanwhile, an insignificant wetting trend in the Yangtze River Basin and most parts of western China could be detectable. For the Yangtze River Basin, the increased annual precipitation mainly resulted from the significant rising of summer rainfall, though winter precipitation also tended to increase.Since 1956, the country veraged pan evaporation has had a significant trend to decrease, with a changing rate of -34.5 mm/10a. The most significant decreaseoccurred in spring and summer in the North China Plain and the lower reach of the Yangtze River. The largest decrease in Pan evaporation in terms of absolute values is in northwestern China. It is worth to note that average sunshine duration and wind speed are also experiencing a tremendous drop in most regions of the country during the past 50 years, and they usually bear a similarity with pan evaporation in spatial pattern of the tendencies. In parts of the North China Plain,annual sunshine duration in the recent years is almost 500 hours fewer than that of 50 years ago. We have also tentatively analyzed the possible causes for the observed changes. However, it is be premature at this moment to give a definite conclusion.

采用国家基准气候站和基本气象站的地面资料，系统地分析了中国大陆地区1951年以来近地表主要气候要素演化的时间和空间特征。结果表明，中国近50 a来年平均地表气温变暖幅度约为1.1 ℃，增温速率接近0.22 ℃/（10 a），比全球或半球同期平均增温速率明显偏高。地表气温增暖主要发生在最近的20余年，其季节和空间特征与前人分析结论基本一致。降水量变化趋势对所取时间段和区域范围敏感。1951年以来全国平均降水量变化趋势不明显，但1956年以来略有增加。降水变化的空间特征明显而相对稳定，东北北部、包括长江中下游的东南部地区和西部广大地区降水增加，而华北地区以及东北东南部和西北东部地区降水明显减少。分析还发现，近50 a来全国平均的日照时数、平均风速、水面蒸发等气候要素均呈显著下降趋势，但积雪地带的最大积雪深度却有所增加。中国日照时间和水面蒸发量变化的空间特征很相似，减少最明显的地区均发生在华北和华东，新疆次之。影响中国年代以上尺度气候变化的因子错综复杂，人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增高可能在一定程度上影响了中国近50 a来的气候，但考虑到尚存的不确定性，目前仍不能给出明确结论。中国东部大部分地区日照时间和水面蒸发量减少可能均起源于人为排放的气溶胶影响，平均风速减弱也有利于水面蒸发量下降，而在西部地区云量和降水量的变化可能更重要。

In this paper, some results concerning the study on the characteristics of the climate change and its possible formation mechanism in China for the apparatus observatory period since 1920s has been synthetically described in detail.Since 1920s, China experienced two warm-periods during 1940s and 1990s respectively and a relative cold period during the period of 1950s-1960s. During 1990s, the yearly mean temperature of the warmest year (1998) or the temperature of the 5-year running mean almost reached to or was warmer than that in 1946 which was the warmest year and that of the 5-year running mean during the previous warm period. The strongest warming areas were located in the northern China such as Heilongjiang province and northern Xinjiang autonomous region, while over the area south of 35°N; and east to 100°E, there existed acooling belt centered over the Sichuan Basin since 1950s. Although the area showed a warming trend during 1990s, it did not reach to the temperature during warm period of 1940s. In terms of the rainf all over China, it reached to the least during 1920s (least in 1929) while the most during 1950s and gradually decreased from then on. After 1970s, the rain fall amount had little change with weak oscillation but the pluvian region moved southward from North China to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river since 1980s. During the period of 1951-1990, the temperature and rainfall showed negative correlation over the most areas. There existed two negative correlation areas over the Northeast China and the region between the Yangtze river and Yellow river basin, which indicate that it turns warmer and drier over north area while more cold and wet over area between Huai river and Yangtze river. Comparing these characteristics of the climate change over China with that of the global scale, the warming period over China distinctly laged behind that of the global warming, and clear difference existed for the cooling belts.

自20世纪20年代以来,中国地区40和90年代出现了2个暖期及50～60年代相对冷期。最近的90年代的最暖年(1998年)或5a滑动平均气温几乎已达或略高于40年代的最暖年(1946年)或5a滑动平均气温。变暖最明显是北方地区(黑龙江和新疆北部),而35°N以南和100°E以东地区自50年代以来存在一个以四川盆地为中心的变冷带,虽然90年代有变暖趋势,但基本达到40年代暖期气温。中国降水则以20年代为最少(1929年最少),50年代为多水年代,以后缓慢减少,70年代以后变化不大,但多雨带在80年代及以后由华北南移到长江中下游。1951～1990年,大部分地区气温和降水呈负相关,在东北和长江—黄河间存在2个负相关中心,表明北方是变暖变旱,江淮间是变冷变湿。这些气候变化特征和全球气候变化相比较,除北方外,变暖期明显的滞后于全球变暖,并且出现变冷带等明显差异。文中还综述了用诊断和数值模拟方法对影响中国变化的气候自然变化和人类活动影响(热岛效应和气溶胶影响)的研究结果。我们认为,以上提出的3种人类活动对中国气候变化有明显影响,特别是工农业发展造成的气溶胶增加是四川盆地气温变冷的主要原因。

基于黑龙江省黑土区24个市县1961-2010年的逐日气温数据,运用空间插值分析和趋势性分析,从空间和时间上对黑龙江省黑土区四季气温空间变化特征进行分析.结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,黑龙江省黑土区全年及平均气温的空间变化趋势比较一致,皆是由北向南逐渐升高,并且高温区逐渐向北移动.50 a来黑土区平均气温明显上升,四季气温在时间变化上存在季节性差异,尤其是春、冬季升温显著,且冬季升温大于春季,说明冬季增暖对年平均气温升高贡献最大.10 a平均气温最大负距平出现在1961-1970年的冬季,最大正距平出现在1981-1990年的秋季.

摘　要： 运用MHF小波分析、非参数统计检验Mann—kendall法及Yamamoto法对东北地区91个气象站点近50年的气候资料进行了温度变化的时空特征分析，结果表明：东北地区近50年来年均气温存在着明显的增温趋势，变化幅度为0．36℃／10年，明显高于全国的平均增温幅度，冬季和春季对东北地区年均气温上升趋势贡献率最大，两者的变化幅度分别为0．6℃／10年和0．4℃／10年。年、季节的温度变化趋势在空间上存在差异，对于年均温而言，近50年来整个东北地区的升温幅度较大的地区位于小兴安岭，松嫩平原大部及大兴安岭山地北端；大兴安岭南端、燕山山地东侧，辽河平原、辽东山地及长白山地大部变化幅度较小，本溪周围为整个东北地区气温变化幅度最小的地区。东北地区气温年变化具有明显的14年振荡周期，年代际特征明显，突变点分别为1964年和1988年，后者为强突变点。

Defined are East Asian winter/summer monsoon intensity indices and calculated 1873 ～1989 winter/summer and monthly(JJA/DJF)indices with the secular climatic change investigated.Evidence suggests that the summer monsoon was greatly enhanced for the study period with little change or even slightly enfeebled for the winter wind.Also,analysis shows that the summer monsoon displayed enhamced sudden change around 1918 concurrently with the abrupt rise in northern summer surface temperature,and,in contrast,the winter monsoon showed less noticeable abrupt change in 1958.Finally,sliding correlation analysis was made to investigate the relation between the winter/summer monsoons and northern surface temperature,indicating an interdecadal variation in their correlation.

定义了东亚冬、夏季风强度指数,计算了1873～1989年夏季、冬季及其逐月的东亚季风强度指数,研究了冬、夏季风强度指数的长期气候变化。结果表明,100多年来,东亚夏季风明显加强,冬季风变化不大,稍有减弱。突变分析结果表明,1918年前后,东亚夏季风突变增强,与北半球夏季地面气温突变增暖是同步发生的。但是,冬季风不太明显的突变发生于1958年。此外,用滑动相关系数分析了东亚冬夏季风与北半球地面气温的关系,指出它们之间的相关关系有年代际变化。

利用洮河流域气象观测资料和水资源定位观测资料,分析气候变化特征、水资源变化特征及其二者的关系,建立水资源气候模式。分析表明:洮河流域降水量年际变化呈下降趋势,降水量变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在-14.5~-4.6 mm/10 a之间,降水量递减以夏季降水量递减为主。气温年际变化趋势呈显著上升趋势,气温变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在0.12~0.59℃/10 a之间,增温率以冬季最大,年际变化趋势从20世纪70年代之后持续上升。年干燥指数变化呈显著上升趋势,年干燥指数变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在0.05~0.12/10 a之间。近50年来洮河流域气候趋于暖干化。洮河流域水资源呈显著下降趋势,年际变化存在2~3,8~9,15 a的年际周期变化。水资源与降水量呈显著正相关,与干燥指数呈显著负相关,降水量减少,干燥指数上升,导致水资源减少。