A review of achievements on temperature variation during the last 100 years in China is made. It is found that the general tendency of warming in China is similar to that in the Northern Hemisphere,but with some significant differences in the evolutive process and warming magnitudes. These differences include (1 ) the peak temperature in China occurred in the 40's rather than after the 80's; (2 )since the 50's the cooling was observed in southwest China while the warming mainly occurred in Northeast China, North China and (3) the two sudden changes in temperature variations in China during the last 100 years were observed, with the first one occurred in 1919 and the second one in 1952. The effect of urbanization on the measurements of air temperature and their correction methods are also discussed. The amplitude of the temperature variation in China during the last 100 years does not exceed the range of natural climate fluctuations. Therefore,it is uncertain that the above temperature variation is caused by human activity.

对我国近百年来温度变化的研究工作和结果作了综述。发现我国增温趋势与北半球的情况大致相似,但在具体的变化过程和幅度上又与全球变化存在明显差异。这包括:(1)我国温度出现最高的时期是在40年代,而不是80年代以后;(2)我国的西南地区自50年代以来一直在降温,增暖主要出现在东北、华北和西北西部地区;(3)近百年来中国温度变化出现两次突变,一次在1919年,一次在1952年。作者还讨论了城市化对温度测量的影响以及订正的方法。由于中国温度变化的幅度并未超过气候自然变率的范围,所以目前还不能确定这种变化是由人类活动引起的。

On the basis of the daily air surface temperature data of 468 meteorological observation stations in mainland China from 1960 to 2013, the spatial and temporal characteristics of winter temperature are analyzed. First, linear regression and regime shift detection methods are used to identify tendency and abrupt point. Winter temperature shows interdecadal variability superimposed on a long-term warming trend with the cold period from 1960-1961 to 1985-1986, the warm period from 1986-1987 to 2005-2006, and the hiatus period from 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. To examine the underlying mechanism for the formation of the three periods, the atmospheric circulation systems are compared by using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. It is found that the cold/hiatus (warm) period is characterized by weak (strong) zonal wind in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, strong (weak) East Asian Trough on the 500 hPa geopotential height field, strong (weak) downdraft after the trough, strong (weak) Siberian High, and enhanced (weakened) northeast surface wind over the Asian continent. These features provide favorable circulation conditions for cold (warm) winter in mainland China. Furthermore, by influencing the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO) affects the winter temperature, particularly the winter minimum temperature on the interdecadal timescale. Conversely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is positively correlated to the winter temperature on the interdecadal timescale. Subsequently, the results indicate that with the modulation of the interdecadal variability of the PDO, the combined effects of NAM/AO and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence the first EOF mode (EOF1), which has an identical signal throughout China, and influences the second EOF mode (EOF2), which has a seesaw pattern between southern and northern China. In addition, the superimposition of EOF1 and EOF2 probably caused persistent warming winters in the 1980s and 1990s and may have been responsible for the significant cooling trend during the last seven years in northwestern and northeastern China.

利用中国大陆468 个站点1960～2013 年逐日气温资料，本文首先对中国冬季气温的年代际变化特征进行分析。通过气候跃变检验分析发现，中国冬季气温在整体变暖的趋势上叠加有年代际波动，可划分为冷期、暖期和停滞期三个时期。本文对比三个时期的冬季大气环流发现，冷/停滞期（暖）期西风环流减弱（增强）而东亚大槽增强（浅薄），槽后的辐合下沉增强（削弱），西伯利亚高压增强（减弱），这加强（削弱）了东亚冬季风，冷空气更多（少）侵入中国大陆地区，冬季气温偏低（高）。北半球环状模/北极涛动（Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode，NAM/Arctic Oscillation，AO）正是通过东亚冬季风系统对中国冬季气温，尤其是冬季最低气温有很强的年代际影响。太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation，PDO）与中国冬季气温在年代际上也有很好的正相关关系。进一步将PDO 的年代际变化分量作为背景，分析NAM/AO 和厄尔尼诺—南方涛动（El Nino Southern Oscillation，ENSO）不同配置下的东亚冬季风环流场可以发现，两者的配置作用不仅影响着中国冬季气温一致变化型的年代际波动，而且也可以影响到冬季气温南北反相振荡型的变化，这从一个方面解释了1980 年代和1990年代北方变暖较强及最近十年北方降温趋势较为明显的原因。