Spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of cultivated land quality in Tongxiang City

doi:10.16178/j.issn.0528-9017.20240877

Abstract

Abstract:

The quality of cultivated land is directly related to food security and the long-term stability of the country. It is necessary to clarify the spatial-temporal variation patterns and distribution characteristics of cultivated land quality and explore the key factors for improving cultivated land quality. This paper takes Tongxiang City as the research area. Based on the evaluation of the survey data on the change of cultivated land quality from 2017 to 2020, the spatial-temporal variation trend of local cultivated land quality is simulated through Bayesian maximum entropy, and the key driving factors for the improvement of cultivated land quality are analyzed from the perspective of spatial-temporal variation through geographically weighted regression. The results show that the quality of cultivated land in Tongxiang City has steadily improved in recent years. By 2020, the proportion of first-class fields had reached as high as 98.62%. The changes in soil nutrient status have a relatively strong overall explanatory power for the changes in cultivated land quality. Among them, the improvement of organic matter has the most significant effect on enhancing the quality of local cultivated land, and there is still room for further improvement in the eastern region. The improvement of available potassium has a significant impact on the quality of cultivated land in the southwest region where its content is relatively low, and its influence is even greater than that of organic matter. The pH value has been relatively stable in recent years, and the overall content of available phosphorus in the local area is at a relatively high level, both of which have a relatively small impact on the improvement of cultivated land quality, but it is necessary to be vigilant about the harm caused by excessive available phosphorus to crop production.

Key words: cultivated land quality, spatial-temporal variation, Bayesian maximum entropy, geographical weight, driving factors

CLC Number:

S158

ZHU Yuxiang, CHEN Jiayi, FEI Xufeng, WU Yong, REN Zhouqiao. Spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of cultivated land quality in Tongxiang City[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Agricultural Sciences, 2026, 67(1): 194-201.

Figures/Tables 7

References 34

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耕地质量等级	耕地质量指数	耕地质量等级	耕地质量指数
一等	≥0.917 0	六等	0.793 9~<0.818 5
二等	0.892 4~<0.917 0	七等	0.769 3~<0.793 9
三等	0.867 8~<0.892 4	八等	0.744 6~<0.769 3
四等	0.843 1~<0.867 8	九等	0.720 0~<0.744 6
五等	0.818 5~<0.843 1	十等	<0.720 0

耕地质量等级	耕地质量指数	耕地质量等级	耕地质量指数
一等	≥0.917 0	六等	0.793 9~<0.818 5
二等	0.892 4~<0.917 0	七等	0.769 3~<0.793 9
三等	0.867 8~<0.892 4	八等	0.744 6~<0.769 3
四等	0.843 1~<0.867 8	九等	0.720 0~<0.744 6
五等	0.818 5~<0.843 1	十等	<0.720 0

年份	耕地质量指数	一等田比例/%	二等田比例/%	三等田比例/%	四等田比例/%	五等田比例/%	六等田比例/%	七等田比例/%
2017	0.910	40.89	41.64	15.98	1.19	0.25	0.04	0.01
2018	0.913	34.16	47.24	16.30	1.93	0.37
2019	0.928	64.09	24.06	10.47	1.38
2020	0.947	98.62	1.38

年份	耕地质量指数	一等田比例/%	二等田比例/%	三等田比例/%	四等田比例/%	五等田比例/%	六等田比例/%	七等田比例/%
2017	0.910	40.89	41.64	15.98	1.19	0.25	0.04	0.01
2018	0.913	34.16	47.24	16.30	1.93	0.37
2019	0.928	64.09	24.06	10.47	1.38
2020	0.947	98.62	1.38

指标	平均值		变动
指标	2017	2020	平均值	标准差
pH值	6.55	6.60	0.05	0.96
有机质含量/(g·kg^-1)	21.07	26.68^***	5.61	13.85
有效磷含量/(mg·kg^-1)	39.29	58.94^**	19.65	68.81
速效钾含量/(mg·kg^-1)	137.14	185.90^***	48.76	114.13