农业基础设施、空间溢出与粮食绿色全要素生产率——基于长江经济带面板数据的分析

doi:10.16178/j.issn.0528-9017.20240953

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文以长江经济带11个省市为研究对象,首先运用超效率SBM-GML模型对2011—2023年粮食绿色全要素生产率进行评估,并最终采用空间杜宾模型分析农业基础设施对粮食绿色全要素生产率的作用。结果表明,长江经济带农业基础设施和粮食绿色全要素生产率存在显著的空间相关性;长江经济带农业基础设施的改善不仅提高了本地区的粮食绿色全要素生产率,且存在空间溢出效应,能够加速周边地区粮食绿色全要素生产率水平的提高;加大的财政力度和提高的城镇化水平有利于提高长江经济带粮食绿色全要素生产率水平,而农业产业结构调整和城乡收入差距对提高长江经济带粮食绿色全要素生产率存在阻碍作用。基于此,为了进一步提高长江经济带农业基础设施对粮食绿色全要素生产率的助推力,提出了实施差异化策略,推动农业基础设施高质量发展,强化农业基础设施空间溢出效应,提高粮食绿色生产潜力,农业财政量增质优和新型城镇化有序推进等对策建议。

关键词: 农业基础设施, 粮食全要素生产率, 空间杜宾模型

Abstract:

This paper took the 11 provinces and cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research subjects. First, it employed an ultra-efficient SBM-GML framework to evaluate the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of grain from 2011 to 2023. Finally, the spatial Durbin model was used to analyze the impact of agricultural infrastructure on GTFP of grain. The results indicated that there was a significant spatial correlation between agricultural infrastructure and GTFP of grain in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The improvement of agricultural infrastructure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt not only enhanced the GTFP of grain within the region but also had a spatial spillover effect, accelerating the improvement of GTFP of grain in surrounding areas. Increased fiscal support and higher urbanization levels were beneficial for enhancing the GTFP of grain in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while the adjustment of the agricultural industry structure, and urban-rural income gap hindered the improvement of GTFP of grain in the region. Based on this, in order to further enhance the driving force of agricultural infrastructure on GTFP of grain in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it was proposed to implement differentiated strategies, promote high-quality development of agricultural infrastructure, strengthen spatial spillover effects of agricultural infrastructure, increase the potential for green production of grain, improve the quality of agricultural finance, and orderly promote new urbanization.

Key words: agricultural infrastructure, green total factor productivity of grain, spatial Durbin model

中图分类号:

马成龙, 孔令成. 农业基础设施、空间溢出与粮食绿色全要素生产率——基于长江经济带面板数据的分析[J]. 浙江农业科学, 2026, 67(1): 251-259.

MA Chenglong, KONG Lingcheng. Agricultural infrastructure, spatial spillover, and green total factor productivity of grain in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: a panel data analysis[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Agricultural Sciences, 2026, 67(1): 251-259.

图/表 7

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一级指标	二级指标	计算方法	单位
投入指标	劳动力投入	第一产业从业人数×B	10⁴人
	土地投入	粮食种植面积	10³ hm²
	农业机械动力投入	农业机械总动力×A	10⁴ kW·h
	化肥用量	化肥用量×A	10⁴ t
	农药用量	农药用量×A	10⁴ t
	农膜用量	农膜用量×A	10⁴ t
	有效灌溉面积	农业有效灌溉面积×A	10³ hm²
产出指标	期望产出	农业总产值×A	10⁸元
	非期望产出	农业碳排放量×A	10⁴ t

一级指标	二级指标	计算方法	单位
投入指标	劳动力投入	第一产业从业人数×B	10⁴人
	土地投入	粮食种植面积	10³ hm²
	农业机械动力投入	农业机械总动力×A	10⁴ kW·h
	化肥用量	化肥用量×A	10⁴ t
	农药用量	农药用量×A	10⁴ t
	农膜用量	农膜用量×A	10⁴ t
	有效灌溉面积	农业有效灌溉面积×A	10³ hm²
产出指标	期望产出	农业总产值×A	10⁸元
	非期望产出	农业碳排放量×A	10⁴ t

变量	样本数	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
GTFP	143	2.003	0.955	0.967	6.701
AI	143	1.678	0.726	0.197	3.219
CYJG	143	0.222	0.103	0.066	0.553
SZL	143	0.114	0.096	0.010	0.643
SRCJ	143	2.523	0.381	1.897	3.648
CZLD	143	0.295	0.179	0.065	0.728
CZH	143	0.596	0.131	0.350	0.896

变量	样本数	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
GTFP	143	2.003	0.955	0.967	6.701
AI	143	1.678	0.726	0.197	3.219
CYJG	143	0.222	0.103	0.066	0.553
SZL	143	0.114	0.096	0.010	0.643
SRCJ	143	2.523	0.381	1.897	3.648
CZLD	143	0.295	0.179	0.065	0.728
CZH	143	0.596	0.131	0.350	0.896

年份	Moran's I	p值
2011—2012	-0.107	0.468
2012—2013	-0.100	0.499
2013—2014	-0.112	0.442
2014—2015	-0.054	0.272
2015—2016	-0.053	0.267
2016—2017	-0.008	0.010
2017—2018	0.045	0.024
2018—2019	0.043	0.028
2019—2020	0.056	0.020
2020—2021	0.086	0.010
2021—2022	0.086	0.010
2022—2023	0.071	0.022