环境规制、空间溢出与农业绿色全要素生产率——基于长江经济带面板数据的分析

doi:10.16178/j.issn.0528-9017.20250531

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究基于空间溢出效应理论,以长江经济带11省市2007—2023年的面板数据为样本,系统探究环境规制与农业绿色全要素生产率之间的内在关系与机理。研究采用熵值法衡量环境规制强度,运用超效率SBM-GML模型评估农业绿色全要素生产率,并借助双向固定效应空间杜宾模型分析其空间溢出效应。结果表明: 长江经济带环境规制不仅对本地区农业绿色全要素生产率具有显著正向促进作用,也表现出明显的空间溢出效应,且其影响存在空间异质性,并受到地区经济发展水平的显著制约。基于此,长江经济带应科学利用环境规制的约束与激励作用,通过提升技术创新水平培育农业新质生产力,因地制宜地实施差异化、动态化的环境规制政策,同时加强区域协同,推动跨流域环境污染共治与联防联控。

关键词: 环境规制, 农业绿色全要素生产率, 空间溢出效应, 长江经济带

Abstract:

This study is based on the theory of spatial spillover effects and uses panel data from 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2007 to 2023 to systematically investigate the intrinsic relationship and mechanisms between environmental regulation and agricultural green total factor productivity. The research employs the entropy method to measure the intensity of environmental regulation, utilizes the super-efficiency SBM-GML model to assess agricultural green total factor productivity, and applies a two-way fixed effects spatial Durbin model to analyze spatial spillover effects. The results indicate that environmental regulation in the Yangtze River economic belt not only has a significant positive promoting effect on agricultural green total factor productivity in the local region but also exhibits clear spatial spillover effects. Furthermore, its impact shows spatial heterogeneity and is significantly constrained by the level of regional economic development. Based on these findings, the Yangtze River economic belt should scientifically leverage the restraining and incentivizing effects of environmental regulation, foster new quality productive forces in agriculture by enhancing technological innovation, implement differentiated and dynamic environmental regulation policies tailored to local conditions, strengthen regional coordination, and promote cross-basin joint pollution prevention and control.

Key words: environmental regulation, agricultural green total factor productivity, spatial spillover effect, Yangtze River economic belt

中图分类号:

张杭, 孔令成. 环境规制、空间溢出与农业绿色全要素生产率——基于长江经济带面板数据的分析[J]. 浙江农业科学, 2026, 67(1): 271-280.

ZHANG Hang, KONG Lingcheng. Environmental regulation, spatial spillover, and agricultural green total factor productivity: an analysis based on panel data from the Yangtze River economic belt[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Agricultural Sciences, 2026, 67(1): 271-280.

图/表 8

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变量	观测值	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
A	187	1.105	0.112	0.798	1.712
E	187	-0.464	0.161	-0.924	-0.190
L	187	2.276	0.131	1.823	2.538
S	187	1.192	0.416	0.619	3.058
O	187	9.838	0.341	6.772	12.200
N	187	0.298	0.333	0.027	1.670

变量	观测值	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
A	187	1.105	0.112	0.798	1.712
E	187	-0.464	0.161	-0.924	-0.190
L	187	2.276	0.131	1.823	2.538
S	187	1.192	0.416	0.619	3.058
O	187	9.838	0.341	6.772	12.200
N	187	0.298	0.333	0.027	1.670

年份	环境规制		农业全要素生产率
年份	Moran's I指数	p值	Moran's I指数	p值
2010	0.156	0.110	0.378^***	<0.001
2013	0.182^*	0.071	0.527^***	<0.001
2014	0.168^*	0.090	0.522^***	<0.001
2015	0.188^*	0.064	0.401^***	<0.001
2017	0.188^*	0.064	0.396^***	<0.001
2019	0.165^*	0.096	0.354^**	0.001
2022	0.162^*	0.100	0.148	0.121
2023	0.168^*	0.090	0.146	0.117

年份	环境规制		农业全要素生产率
年份	Moran's I指数	p值	Moran's I指数	p值
2010	0.156	0.110	0.378^***	<0.001
2013	0.182^*	0.071	0.527^***	<0.001
2014	0.168^*	0.090	0.522^***	<0.001
2015	0.188^*	0.064	0.401^***	<0.001
2017	0.188^*	0.064	0.396^***	<0.001
2019	0.165^*	0.096	0.354^**	0.001
2022	0.162^*	0.100	0.148	0.121
2023	0.168^*	0.090	0.146	0.117

检验方法	原假设	统计值	p值	结果
LR检验	SDM退化为SAR	17.161	0.004	拒绝原假设
	SDM退化为SEM	9.771	0.082	拒绝原假设
Wald检验	SDM退化为SAR	18.150	0.003	拒绝原假设
	SDM退化为SEM	14.971	0.020	拒绝原假设