关键词: 嵊州市, 稻飞虱, 逐步回归, 发生量模型, 预测预报

Abstract:

The grain production in the eastern mountainous area of Zhejiang Province occupies an extremely important position. Taking Shengzhou City as an example, the rice planting area in Shengzhou is large and there are many varieties of rice, which is a large grain producing county. Rice planthoppers have severely occurred in some areas of Shengzhou, but there have been no reports on the occurrence and prediction of rice planthoppers in the local area. In this paper, field occurrence data of rice planthopper in Shengzhou City from April to October, from 2005 to 2022 were collected to study the peak of its occurrence. At the same time, combined with the insect situation data under the lamp and meteorological data such as temperature and rainfall, the occurrence model was established by multiple stepwise regression analysis to carry out prediction study. The results showed that the peak of rice planthopper occurrence in the field was from July to September, and the amount of rice planthopper occurrence was closely related to the local weather and the amount of insect source in the early stage. The prediction accuracy of the established model was more than 91.25% in 2023. Therefore, the identification of the occurrence of rice planthopper and the implementation of prediction and forecast could provide data support for its accurate and scientific control.

Key words: Shengzhou City, rice planthopper, stepwise regression, occurrence model, prediction and forecast