Abstract:

The non-grain trend of cultivated land in Fujian Province is particularly prominent. Revealing its spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms，and proposing corresponding governance pathways，is of great significance for ensuring food security and optimizing agricultural structure. Based on county-level data of Fujian Province from 2002 to 2022，this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of the non-grain trend of cultivated land in Fujian Province using methods such as spatial autocorrelation analysis and principal component analysis，and proposed governance pathways. The results showed that， temporally，the non-grain rate exhibited a significant upward trend，which could be divided into four stages： rapid rise， slight fluctuation， steady growth，and accelerated expansion. Spatially，the non-grain trend of cultivated land showed a high-value clustering characteristic in the southeast，with the global Moran's I index ranging from 0.229 to 0.842，and the local patterns being dominated by high-high and low-low clusters. The non-grain trend of cultivated land was mainly influenced by the combined effects of physical geographical constraints，policy systems，economic factors，and urban-rural development，with the core influencing factors being physical geographical constraints and the level of economic and social development. Based on the above findings，a governance pathway centered on "natural adaptation，economic intensification，policy coordination，and technology empowerment" is proposed. The implementation of differentiated management measures will help achieve a dynamic balance between cultivated land protection and regional economic and social development in Fujian Province，providing a reference for optimizing and adjusting cultivated land protection policies under the national food security strategy.

Key words: non-grain trend of cultivated land, spatiotemporal change, principal component analysis, grey relational analysis, Fujian Province