桐乡市耕地质量时空变动及驱动因素

doi:10.16178/j.issn.0528-9017.20240877

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

耕地质量状况直接关系到粮食安全和国家的长治久安,有必要明确耕地质量的时空变动规律和分布特征,探索耕地质量提升的关键因子。本文以桐乡市为研究区,在评价2017至2020年间耕地质量变更调查数据的基础上,通过贝叶斯最大熵对当地耕地质量的时空变动趋势进行模拟,并通过地理加权回归从时空变异的角度解析耕地质量提升的关键驱动因素。结果表明: 近年来桐乡市耕地质量稳步提高,至2020年,一等田占比高达98.62%。土壤养分状况的变动对耕地质量变动的总体解释能力较强。其中有机质提升对当地耕地质量提升的效果最显著,且东部地区还有进一步提升空间。速效钾提高对其含量较低的西南部地区耕地质量提升较大,其影响甚至高于有机质。pH值近年来较为稳定,同时当地有效磷含量总体处于较高水平,二者对耕地质量提升的影响较小,但需要警惕有效磷过量对农作物生产带来的危害。

关键词: 耕地质量, 时空变动, 贝叶斯最大熵, 地理加权, 驱动因素

Abstract:

The quality of cultivated land is directly related to food security and the long-term stability of the country. It is necessary to clarify the spatial-temporal variation patterns and distribution characteristics of cultivated land quality and explore the key factors for improving cultivated land quality. This paper takes Tongxiang City as the research area. Based on the evaluation of the survey data on the change of cultivated land quality from 2017 to 2020, the spatial-temporal variation trend of local cultivated land quality is simulated through Bayesian maximum entropy, and the key driving factors for the improvement of cultivated land quality are analyzed from the perspective of spatial-temporal variation through geographically weighted regression. The results show that the quality of cultivated land in Tongxiang City has steadily improved in recent years. By 2020, the proportion of first-class fields had reached as high as 98.62%. The changes in soil nutrient status have a relatively strong overall explanatory power for the changes in cultivated land quality. Among them, the improvement of organic matter has the most significant effect on enhancing the quality of local cultivated land, and there is still room for further improvement in the eastern region. The improvement of available potassium has a significant impact on the quality of cultivated land in the southwest region where its content is relatively low, and its influence is even greater than that of organic matter. The pH value has been relatively stable in recent years, and the overall content of available phosphorus in the local area is at a relatively high level, both of which have a relatively small impact on the improvement of cultivated land quality, but it is necessary to be vigilant about the harm caused by excessive available phosphorus to crop production.

Key words: cultivated land quality, spatial-temporal variation, Bayesian maximum entropy, geographical weight, driving factors

中图分类号:

S158

朱玉祥, 陈佳毅, 费徐峰, 吴勇, 任周桥. 桐乡市耕地质量时空变动及驱动因素[J]. 浙江农业科学, 2026, 67(1): 194-201.

ZHU Yuxiang, CHEN Jiayi, FEI Xufeng, WU Yong, REN Zhouqiao. Spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of cultivated land quality in Tongxiang City[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Agricultural Sciences, 2026, 67(1): 194-201.

图/表 7

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耕地质量等级	耕地质量指数	耕地质量等级	耕地质量指数
一等	≥0.917 0	六等	0.793 9~<0.818 5
二等	0.892 4~<0.917 0	七等	0.769 3~<0.793 9
三等	0.867 8~<0.892 4	八等	0.744 6~<0.769 3
四等	0.843 1~<0.867 8	九等	0.720 0~<0.744 6
五等	0.818 5~<0.843 1	十等	<0.720 0

耕地质量等级	耕地质量指数	耕地质量等级	耕地质量指数
一等	≥0.917 0	六等	0.793 9~<0.818 5
二等	0.892 4~<0.917 0	七等	0.769 3~<0.793 9
三等	0.867 8~<0.892 4	八等	0.744 6~<0.769 3
四等	0.843 1~<0.867 8	九等	0.720 0~<0.744 6
五等	0.818 5~<0.843 1	十等	<0.720 0

年份	耕地质量指数	一等田比例/%	二等田比例/%	三等田比例/%	四等田比例/%	五等田比例/%	六等田比例/%	七等田比例/%
2017	0.910	40.89	41.64	15.98	1.19	0.25	0.04	0.01
2018	0.913	34.16	47.24	16.30	1.93	0.37
2019	0.928	64.09	24.06	10.47	1.38
2020	0.947	98.62	1.38

年份	耕地质量指数	一等田比例/%	二等田比例/%	三等田比例/%	四等田比例/%	五等田比例/%	六等田比例/%	七等田比例/%
2017	0.910	40.89	41.64	15.98	1.19	0.25	0.04	0.01
2018	0.913	34.16	47.24	16.30	1.93	0.37
2019	0.928	64.09	24.06	10.47	1.38
2020	0.947	98.62	1.38

指标	平均值		变动
指标	2017	2020	平均值	标准差
pH值	6.55	6.60	0.05	0.96
有机质含量/(g·kg^-1)	21.07	26.68^***	5.61	13.85
有效磷含量/(mg·kg^-1)	39.29	58.94^**	19.65	68.81
速效钾含量/(mg·kg^-1)	137.14	185.90^***	48.76	114.13