广东增城早稻主要害虫时序动态及其关键气象驱动因子

doi:10.16178/j.issn.0528-9017.20250677

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究旨在探明气象因子对增城地区早稻主要害虫(二化螟、稻飞虱、稻纵卷叶螟)种群动态的驱动机制,为区域性精准防控提供理论依据。本研究于2024—2025年早稻生育期(3—7月),在广州市增城区朱村街道布设智能虫情测报设备与小气候监测站,系统监测害虫种群数量及10项气象因子,深入解析气象因子与害虫种群动态的关联。结果表明: 3种害虫种群动态均呈现明显年际分异,二化螟在2025年暴发强度显著增强,首次高峰提前7 d,虫量增长2.79倍,最高峰虫量激增11.06倍且持续期较2024年延长5 d;稻飞虱种群呈现“峰型倒置”现象,2025年前峰虫量降低70.63%,暴发时间滞后至蜡熟期,且峰值较2024年增加17.35倍;稻纵卷叶螟在2025年整体虫量较2024年下降69.83%,且首次虫峰前移12 d至分蘖末期。3种害虫的暴发均受特异性气象级联效应调控。二化螟“低基数-高暴发”的年际动态模式主要受极端温度事件与降水变率的协同驱动。稻飞虱“年度峰型倒置”现象由降水格局与风速阈值的协同作用调控。稻纵卷叶螟种群动态呈现“年度差异显著”的特征,主要受极限温度阈值与“高温-降雨-风速”协同互作机制的驱动。基于此,建议在增城早稻害虫精准防控实践中,优先监测与特定害虫高度相关的气象因子变化趋势,并综合分析关键协同气象因子的动态演变,优化增城稻区害虫精准防控的时序策略。

关键词: 水稻, 二化螟, 稻飞虱, 稻纵卷叶螟, 种群动态, 气象因子, 增城

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate the driving mechanisms of meteorological factors on the population dynamics of major early rice pests (Chilo suppressalis, rice planthoppers, and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) in the Zengcheng area, to provide a theoretical basis for regional precision pest control. During the early rice growing season (March-July) of 2024-2025, smart pest forecasters and microclimate monitoring stations were deployed in Zhucun Sub-district, Zengcheng District, Guangzhou City, to systematically monitor pest population numbers and ten meteorological factors, enabling an in-depth analysis of their relationships. The results revealed significant interannual divergence in the population dynamics of all three pests. Chilo suppressalis exhibited a substantially higher outbreak intensity in 2025, with its first peak occurring 7 days earlier, a 2.79-fold increase in abundance, and the highest peak surging 11.06-fold with a duration prolonged by 5 days compared with 2024. Rice planthoppers displayed a “peak inversion” pattern: the early peak abundance in 2025 decreased by 70.63%, the outbreak was delayed until the wax-ripening stage, and the peak value increased by 17.35 times compared with 2024. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis showed an overall population decrease of 69.83% in 2025, and its first population peak shifted 12 days earlier to the late tillering stage. The outbreaks of all three pests were regulated by specific meteorological cascade effects. Specifically, the “low-baseline, high-outbreak” interannual pattern of Chilo suppressalis was primarily driven by the synergistic effects of extreme temperature events and precipitation variability; the “annual peak inversion” of rice planthoppers was controlled by the synergistic interaction between precipitation patterns and wind speed thresholds; and the “marked interannual differences” in Cnaphalocrocis medinalis populations were mainly driven by extreme temperature thresholds and synergistic interactions among high temperature, rainfall, and wind. Based on these findings, we recommend that precision pest control practices for early rice in Zengcheng prioritize monitoring the trends of meteorological factors highly correlated with specific pests and conduct comprehensive analyses of the dynamic evolution of key synergistic meteorological factors, thereby optimizing the timing strategies for precision pest control in the Zengcheng rice area.

Key words: Oryza sativa, Chilo suppressalis, rice planthopper, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis, population dynamics, meteorological factors, Zengcheng

中图分类号:

S435.112

崔灿, 钱凌寒, 管云, 吴颜洲, 张华璐, 钟颖媚, 赖炜钊, 李慎磊. 广东增城早稻主要害虫时序动态及其关键气象驱动因子[J]. 浙江农业科学, 2026, 67(1): 125-135.

CUI Can, QIAN Linghan, GUAN Yun, WU Yanzhou, ZHANG Hualu, ZHONG Yingmei, LAI Weizhao, LI Shenlei. Temporal dynamics of major insect pests in early season rice and their key meteorological driving factors in Zengcheng, Guangdong[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Agricultural Sciences, 2026, 67(1): 125-135.

图/表 6

图1 2024和2025年早稻期间二化螟的年际种群动态

Fig.1 Interannual population dynamics of Chilo suppressalis during the early rice seasons of 2024 and 2025

图2 2024和2025年早稻期间稻飞虱的年际种群动态

Fig.2 Interannual population dynamics of rice planthoppers during the early rice seasons of 2024 and 2025

图3 2024和2025年早稻期间稻纵卷叶螟的年际种群动态

Fig.3 Interannual population dynamics of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis during the early rice seasons of 2024 and 2025

表1 早稻3种主要害虫种群数量与气象因子的相关系数

Table 1 Correlation between populations of three major rice pests and meteorological factors in early-season rice

气象因子	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃
X₁	0.725^**	0.916^**	0.396^*	0.354^*	0.327^*	0.362^*	-0.167	-0.320^*	0.010	0.327^*	0.595^**	-0.034
										(0.040)	(<0.001)	(0.834)
X₂		0.629^**	0.267	0.353^*	0.259	0.348^*	-0.347^*	-0.252	-0.018	0.615^**	0.562^**	-0.109
										(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(0.501)
X₃			0.317^*	0.293	0.252	0.291	-0.184	-0.349^*	0.017	0.180	0.416^**	-0.025
										(0.267)	(0.008)	(0.881)
X₄				0.738^**	0.904^**	0.771^**	0.447^**	0.003	-0.043	0.447^**	0.223	0.297
										(0.004)	(0.168)	(0.063)
X₅					0.871^**	0.974^**	0.194	0.065	-0.183	0.353^*	0.306	0.513^**
										(0.025)	(0.055)	(0.001)
X₆						0.907^**	0.498^**	0.160	-0.069	0.439^**	0.199	0.403^*
										(0.005)	(0.218)	(0.010)
X₇							0.208	0.048	-0.128	0.382^*	0.285	0.491^**
										(0.015)	(0.075)	(0.001)
X₈								0.521^**	0.085	0.116	-0.186	0.270
										(0.475)	(0.250)	(0.092)
X₉									-0.041	0.017	-0.049	0.097
										(0.916)	(0.765)	(0.553)
$X 1 0$										-0.240	-0.320^*	-0.143
										(0.136)	(0.044)	(0.378)

表1 早稻3种主要害虫种群数量与气象因子的相关系数

Table 1 Correlation between populations of three major rice pests and meteorological factors in early-season rice

气象因子	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃
X₁	0.725^**	0.916^**	0.396^*	0.354^*	0.327^*	0.362^*	-0.167	-0.320^*	0.010	0.327^*	0.595^**	-0.034
										(0.040)	(<0.001)	(0.834)
X₂		0.629^**	0.267	0.353^*	0.259	0.348^*	-0.347^*	-0.252	-0.018	0.615^**	0.562^**	-0.109
										(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(0.501)
X₃			0.317^*	0.293	0.252	0.291	-0.184	-0.349^*	0.017	0.180	0.416^**	-0.025
										(0.267)	(0.008)	(0.881)
X₄				0.738^**	0.904^**	0.771^**	0.447^**	0.003	-0.043	0.447^**	0.223	0.297
										(0.004)	(0.168)	(0.063)
X₅					0.871^**	0.974^**	0.194	0.065	-0.183	0.353^*	0.306	0.513^**
										(0.025)	(0.055)	(0.001)
X₆						0.907^**	0.498^**	0.160	-0.069	0.439^**	0.199	0.403^*
										(0.005)	(0.218)	(0.010)
X₇							0.208	0.048	-0.128	0.382^*	0.285	0.491^**
										(0.015)	(0.075)	(0.001)
X₈								0.521^**	0.085	0.116	-0.186	0.270
										(0.475)	(0.250)	(0.092)
X₉									-0.041	0.017	-0.049	0.097
										(0.916)	(0.765)	(0.553)
$X 1 0$										-0.240	-0.320^*	-0.143
										(0.136)	(0.044)	(0.378)

表2 早稻3种主要害虫种群数量的逐步回归模型

Table 2 Stepwise regression models for abundance of three major pests in early-season rice

害虫种类	气象因子	线性回归方程	F值	p值	调整R²
二化螟	X₁、X₂、X₄	Y₁=-18 554.202-12.905X₁+1 241.607X₂+555.958X₄	14.117	<0.001	0.502
稻飞虱	X₁、X₃、X₁₀	Y₂=7 762.875+53.881X₁-57.996X₃-738.285X₁₀	15.300	<0.001	0.524
稻纵卷叶螟	X₅	Y₃=-1 409.818+104.573X₅	13.546	0.001	0.243

表3 二化螟、稻飞虱种群数量与气象因子间的偏相关分析

Table 3 Partial correlation analysis of Chilo suppressalis and rice planthoppers population densities with meteorological factors

害虫	气象因子	偏相关系数(r)	T检验值	p值
二化螟	X₁	-0.377	-2.443	0.020
	X₂	0.637	4.958	<0.001
	X₄	0.473	3.222	0.003
稻飞虱	X₁	0.624	4.791	<0.001
	X₃	-0.430	-2.858	0.007
	X₁₀	-0.434	-2.891	0.006

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